Predicting NCAA Division I Football Conference Winning Percentage

An Applied Resource Allocation Perspective

Authors

  • James E. Johnson Ball State University
  • Benjamin J. Downs Ball State University
  • Zachary C. T. Evans Ball State University
  • Megan Donahue Ball State University
  • Davis Matz University of Providence

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18060/28843

Keywords:

NCAA, Football Bowl Subdivision, FBS, competitive balance, college football, intercollegiate athletics

Abstract

Applied strategies to improve conference wins for NCAA Division I FBS football teams could have implications for increased resource acquisition, bowl berths, or inclusion in the lucrative college football playoffs. Unfortunately, aggregated research is lacking that identifies how administrators might prioritize such efforts, so that they may allocate their scarce resources to the most impactful areas. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate variables likely to impact conference winning percentage to provide practical insight for leaders embracing their role within managerial capitalism. Pearson correlations and multilinear OLS were applied to determine which descriptive, financial, and performance variables predict conference winning percentage. Football expenditures as well as coach success, recruit quality, and power conference membership were significantly predictive. Application of these results suggest conference winning percentage would likely increase as a result of targeted financial development leading to investments in recruiting and football expenditures, particularly in the power conferences.

Author Biographies

James E. Johnson, Ball State University

James E. Johnson, PhD, is a professor of sport administration in the School of Kinesiology at Ball State University. His research interests include intercollegiate and interscholastic sport.

Benjamin J. Downs, Ball State University

Benjamin J. Downs, PhD, is an assistant professor of sport administration in the School of Kinesiology at Ball State University. His research focuses on sport facilities and utilizes modernization to better understand the construction and renovation trends related to multipurpose arenas.

Zachary C. T. Evans, Ball State University

Zachary C. T. Evans, PhD, is an assistant professor of sport administration in the School of Kinesiology at Ball State University. His research interests lie within the field of sport marketing, in particular sport sponsorship.

Megan Donahue, Ball State University

Megan Donahue, MS, is a graduate assistant at Ball State University.

Davis Matz, University of Providence

Davis Matz, MS, is an assistant athletic director of Marketing, Sports Information, and Fan Experience at the University of Providence.

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Published

2025-09-07 — Updated on 2025-09-16

Versions

Issue

Vol. 6 (2025)

Section

Research Articles

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Copyright (c) 2025 James E. Johnson, Benjamin J. Downs, Zachary C. T. Evans, Megan Donahue, Davis Matz

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